# The SAVRN Scarcity Tracker: AI Infrastructure Scarcity, Scored
Source: https://savrn.com/ai-index/scarcity-tracker
Markdown alternate of the page above; the site index is https://savrn.com/llms.txt

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[SAVRN Index.](https://savrn.com/ai-index)

Explore the IndexScarcity Tracker

Three price bases, one GPU-hour

## What the same scarcity reads against

The token index is the market's blended asking price. SAVRN's own basis and the frontier ceiling are read live from the SAVRN Index, not duplicated here. The scarcity-implied price is where the index says the token index is headed.

Token index

$1.08

Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index

Silicon Data · 2026-09-09

Scarcity-implied

$2.55

Token index blended toward retail median by the scarcity score

Computed · 2026-10-23

Retail median

$2.81

On-prem / closed-private-network list prices, per GPU-hour basis

rent_inputs.json (unmapped) · 2026-10-23

SAVRN's own basis

$4.18

SemiAnalysis owner's-cost basis for Vera Rubin NVL72, read live from the SAVRN Index

ai-index /ai-index/api/scarcity-inputs · 2026-10-23

Frontier ceiling

$50.00

Highest tracked frontier list price, read live from the SAVRN Index

ai-index /ai-index/api/scarcity-inputs · 2026-10-23

Eleven indicators

## What is actually scarce, group by group

Each indicator is scored 0 to 100 against a calibrated Balanced-to-Acute anchor, weighted, and rolled into the composite index above. Every value carries its own source.

### Supply tightness

Group score 87.9

| Indicator | Value | As of | Score | Weight | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Primary-market vacancy | 1.4% | 2026-06-30 | 94.3 | 20% | [Source ↗](https://www.cbre.com/press-releases/north-american-data-center-demand-continues-to-outpace-supply-despite-record-construction-activity) |
| Under-construction capacity preleased | 80.4% | 2026-06-30 | 80.8 | 15% | [Source ↗](https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/north-america-data-center-trends-h1-2026) |
| Months of available future capacity | 6months | 2026-06-30 | 85.7 | 10% | [Source ↗](https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/north-america-data-center-trends-h1-2026) |

### Equipment & power lead time

Group score 82.7

| Indicator | Value | As of | Score | Weight | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Gas turbine order-to-delivery lead time | 5years | 2026-03-23 | 75.0 | 10% | [Source ↗](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/5-year-waits-and-rising-costs-how-demand-is-redefining-the-gas-turbine-mar/813385/) |
| Gas turbine plant price | 3000$/kW | 2026-03-23 | 75.0 | 5% | [Source ↗](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/5-year-waits-and-rising-costs-how-demand-is-redefining-the-gas-turbine-mar/813385/) |
| Power transformer unit cost vs 2019 | 77% | 2025-08-31 | 77.0 | 5% | [Source ↗](https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/transformer-troubles-manufacturing-and-policy-constraints-hit-us-transformer-supply/) |
| GE Vernova gas backlog + slot reservations | 116GW | 2026-06-30 | 90.5 | 8% | [Source ↗](https://www.gevernova.com/sites/default/files/gev_webcast_pressrelease_07222026.pdf) |
| ERCOT large loads seeking interconnection | 474GW | 2026-06-30 | 94.2 | 7% | [Source ↗](https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2026/07/29/ERCOT-Senate-July-29-Panel-1-Assessing-The-Grid.pdf) |

### Demand & price confirmation

Group score 82.3

| Indicator | Value | As of | Score | Weight | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Combined 2026 hyperscaler capex guidance | 732.5$bn | 2026-07-30 | 86.5 | 8% | [Source ↗](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4) |
| H100 rental rate index | 2.64$/GPU-hr | 2026-09-10 | 76.0 | 6% | [Source ↗](https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index/h100) |
| Colocation rent growth, 3–10 MW | 8.3% | 2026-06-30 | 83.0 | 6% | [Source ↗](https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/north-america-data-center-trends-h1-2026) |

Rent coverage

## What share of a megawatt's annual output pays the rent

Two disclosed wholesale contracts, three throughput points, five price bases. Each cell is contract rent ÷ (price × tokens a megawatt produces in a year). Above 100% means the contract's own rent cannot be paid back by that basis at that throughput.

| Contract | Throughput point | Token index | Scarcity-implied | SAVRN | Retail median | Frontier |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Oracle – OpenAI | GB300 NVL72 @ 100 tok/s/user | 76% | 32% | 20% | 29% | 2% |
| Oracle – OpenAI | Vera Rubin NVL72 @ 100 tok/s/user | 35% | 15% | 9% | 13% | 1% |
| Oracle – OpenAI | GB300 NVL72, MLPerf throughput | 12% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 0% |
| Monarch – Anthropic | GB300 NVL72 @ 100 tok/s/user | 92% | 39% | 24% | 35% | 2% |
| Monarch – Anthropic | Vera Rubin NVL72 @ 100 tok/s/user | 43% | 18% | 11% | 16% | 1% |
| Monarch – Anthropic | GB300 NVL72, MLPerf throughput | 15% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 0% |

How the index is built. Each indicator scores linearly between a Balanced anchor and an Acute anchor, clipped 0 to 100. The composite index is the weighted average of every indicator actually observed this reading; a missing series drops out rather than counting as zero. Regime bands: Balanced under 40, Tight from 40, Scarce from 70, Acute from 85.

Where SAVRN's own numbers come from. The SAVRN and Frontier price bases are read live from the SAVRN Index's own tracked data, the same figures used throughout [What AI Costs](https://savrn.com/ai-index/pricing/gpus/vera-rubin), not duplicated or separately estimated here.

Refreshed on a weekly schedule. Every value traces to a dated source with a verbatim excerpt; nothing is entered without one.

The SAVRN reference set

## Seven references, one system

Capital, delay, policy, water, grid, permits and scarcity are one system seen from seven sides. Each reference is primary-sourced, refreshed on a schedule, and links into the others, so a project can be followed from the money committed to the docket that stopped it.

Capital Atlas

Who is funding AI data centers: capital providers, named sites, financing transactions, and the blocked-and-delayed record, state by state and company by company.

[Open the atlas →](https://savrn.com/data-center-capital-atlas)

Delay Watchlist

Project-level slippage: named projects, jurisdictional actions, utility and federal dockets, SEC disclosures, and the interconnection queue.

Open the watchlist →

Moratorium Tracker

The policy layer: every state measure and local moratorium mapped and cited, with one page per state.

Open the tracker →

Water Tracker

Every federal, state, local and interstate water measure that touches a data center, plus a fifty-state water ledger.

Open the water tracker →

Grid Operator Watchlist

ERCOT, PJM, MISO, CAISO, SPP, NYISO, ISO-NE and FERC: the large-load rules, filings and queue positions that decide whether a site can energize.

Open the watchlist →

Permits and Power Development

Data center and substation permits, large loads in the interconnection queues, and the power plants planned to serve them, refreshed hourly from public records.

Open the permits tracker →

Have a specific address? Site Intelligence reads all seven references against one location, county, utility and grid operator included, and cites every finding.

[Check an address →](https://savrn.com/site-intelligence)