Every forecast the OpenThomas weather desk read or produced, as-of. Pushed daily from the trading box, so each commit is a timestamped record of what was known when — the leak-free substrate behind the paper's replay experiments (docs/EXPERIMENTS.md in the…
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Size48.1 MB
Licensemit
AccessPublicly accessible
Monthly Downloads119
Dataset Card
By OpenThomas, published under mit, revision 779ed32aaf9e.
Every forecast the OpenThomas weather desk read or
produced, as-of. Pushed daily from the trading box, so each commit is a
timestamped record of what was known when — the leak-free substrate behind
the paper's replay experiments (docs/EXPERIMENTS.md in the
harness repository).
| file | what | lines / bytes |
|---|---|---|
data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl |
as-of daily extremes from seven public NWP models (Open-Meteo previous-runs API) at leads 0-5, plus official settlements (ACIS / NWS CLI) | 24,042 |
data/own-models.jsonl |
station-day extremes from OpenThomas' own GraphCast / Pangu inference runs, with issue timestamps | 2,800 |
data/gencast-spread.json |
per station-day ensemble spread of the latest GenCast run (sigma multiplier input) | 3,283 |
data/graphcast-tempseries.json |
coarse global 2m-temperature daily series from the latest GraphCast run | 112,397 |
data/baseline-nbm.jsonl |
as-of NBM daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive), the official-guidance baseline | 1,980 |
data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl |
as-of GFS MOS daily max/min per station (IEM MOS archive) | 1,980 |
Frozen replay datasets and experiment results
replay/ holds the frozen decision-time rows (one JSONL per window, digest
in the filename) and the experiment results scored on them. A row carries
the settlement station and day, the baseline probability at the snapshot,
the Kalshi bid/ask at that snapshot, and the outcome — never anything the
agent could not have known at decision time.
replay/e3-high9.txtreplay/e3-low1.txtreplay/e3-low2.txtreplay/e3e4.logreplay/e3e4.shreplay/e4.logreplay/e4.shreplay/e4.txtreplay/lineage.jsonreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.mdreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.mdreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.mdreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.mdreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.mdreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.mdreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonreplay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.mdreplay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonreplay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.mdreplay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonreplay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.mdreplay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonlreplay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonlreplay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonlreplay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonlreplay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonlreplay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonlreplay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonlreplay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonlreplay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonlreplay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonlreplay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonlreplay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonlreplay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonlreplay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonlreplay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonlreplay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonlreplay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonlreplay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonlreplay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonlreplay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonlreplay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonlreplay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonlreplay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonlreplay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl
Conventions
- Temperatures are °F; settlements are the integer daily extreme from the NWS Climatological Report (via ACIS), the number the markets settle on.
leadis days ahead: lead 1 for target day d is what the model published on d − 1.- NBM / GFS MOS baselines use the d − 1 12Z run, read from the IEM MOS archive as issued.
- Own-model rows carry
issued_at; the run that produced them is identified by that timestamp and the model name.
Paper trading. Nothing here is financial advice.
Details
- Repository
- openthomas/weather-forecasts
- Publisher
- OpenThomas
- Task category
- Not stated by the source
- Tags
- weather, numerical-weather-prediction, prediction-markets
- Size category
- Not stated by the source
- Languages
- Not stated by the source
- Revision
- 779ed32aaf9e38cd61a6dd928436f52af84d74b4
- Last updated
- 2026-09-18
Files
59 files, 48.1 MB in total.
Data44 files · 48.1 MB
Documentation10 files · 63.8 KB
Other4 files · 1.3 KB
Repository1 file · 2.5 KB
Every file
| File | Type | Size | SHA-256 |
|---|---|---|---|
| data/baseline-gfsmos.jsonl | Data | 262.5 KB | — |
| data/baseline-nbm.jsonl | Data | 256.5 KB | — |
| data/gencast-spread.json | Data | 3.3 KB | — |
| data/graphcast-tempseries.json | Data | 112.4 KB | — |
| data/nwp-guidance-and-settlements.jsonl | Data | 6.3 MB | — |
| data/own-models.jsonl | Data | 420.3 KB | — |
| replay/e3-high9.txt | Data | 2.0 KB | — |
| replay/e3-low1.txt | Data | 2.0 KB | — |
| replay/e3-low2.txt | Data | 2.0 KB | — |
| replay/e4.txt | Data | 482 B | — |
| replay/lineage.json | Data | 85.0 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json | Data | 19.0 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json | Data | 19.1 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.json | Data | 19.2 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.json | Data | 19.1 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.json | Data | 19.4 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.json | Data | 19.3 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.json | Data | 19.3 KB | — |
| replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.json | Data | 19.7 KB | — |
| replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.json | Data | 19.8 KB | — |
| replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl | Data | 1.6 MB | — |
| replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-gfsmos-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-high9-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl | Data | 1.8 MB | — |
| replay/rows-low1-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl | Data | 1.6 MB | — |
| replay/rows-low2-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl | Data | 1.6 MB | — |
| replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.jsonl | Data | 1.6 MB | — |
| replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| replay/rows-nbm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.jsonl | Data | 1.7 MB | — |
| README.md | Documentation | 4.6 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md | Documentation | 6.4 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md | Documentation | 6.4 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-13.md | Documentation | 6.4 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-14.md | Documentation | 6.4 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-15.md | Documentation | 6.4 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-16.md | Documentation | 6.5 KB | — |
| replay/results-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-17.md | Documentation | 6.5 KB | — |
| replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-11.md | Documentation | 7.1 KB | — |
| replay/results-llm-2026-07-09-to-2026-09-12.md | Documentation | 7.1 KB | — |
| replay/e3e4.log | Other | 83 B | — |
| replay/e3e4.sh | Other | 677 B | — |
| replay/e4.log | Other | 91 B | — |
| replay/e4.sh | Other | 420 B | — |
| .gitattributes | Repository | 2.5 KB | — |
License and Download
- License
- mit
- Access
- No access gate
Download from OpenThomas
Released by OpenThomas through its official repository on Hugging Face. Read the license.