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Open-weight model · Time series forecasting

chronos-bolt-base

by Autogluon autogluon/chronos-bolt-base

Update Feb 14, 2025: Chronos-Bolt models are now available on Amazon SageMaker JumpStart! Check out the tutorial notebook to learn how to deploy Chronos endpoints for production use in a few lines of code.

Parameters205M
Context
Weights821.2 MB
Licenseapache-2.0
AccessOpen weights
Monthly Downloads2M

Runs On

What it takes to serve chronos-bolt-base (205M parameters): the memory its weights need at each precision, and the cheapest way to rent enough data-center GPUs to hold them.

PrecisionWeightsMemory neededCheapest setupPer hourAlso fits
16-bit 0.4 GB 0.5 GB 1x MI300X (192 GB)
Vultr
$1.85 1x H100 $1.99 · 1x MI325X $2.00
8-bit 0.2 GB 0.2 GB 1x MI300X (192 GB)
Vultr
$1.85 1x H100 $1.99 · 1x MI325X $2.00
4-bit 0.1 GB 0.1 GB 1x MI300X (192 GB)
Vultr
$1.85 1x H100 $1.99 · 1x MI325X $2.00

Memory is the weights at that precision plus 20% for the runtime and a short context; a long context needs more. Prices are the lowest on-demand hourly rates in the SAVRN Index, read Sep 18, 2026.

SAVRN's Notes on chronos-bolt-base

Ask it for next week's load curve and it answers from history alone, with nearly 100 billion training observations behind it; that is zero-shot forecasting. Stored in float32 it weighs 821 MB; at 16-bit that becomes 0.4 GB of weights and 0.5 GB of memory needed, which leaves the rest of the 192 GB on the Index's cheapest card, one MI300X at $1.85 an hour, idle. Size for series count and cadence, not memory.

Check the history window first: no context length is listed, and the encoder works on patches of observations, so ask Autogluon how much history a forecast can take. The 205M-parameter model traces to two papers, arXiv:2403.07815 and the T5 paper arXiv:1910.10683, but the T5 lineage is architectural; the inputs are numbers, not words. Apache 2.0 allows commercial use, modification and redistribution, with notices kept and significant changes stated.

Model Card

By Autogluon, published under apache-2.0, revision e59be9fd0d4e.

Update Feb 14, 2025: Chronos-Bolt models are now available on Amazon SageMaker JumpStart! Check out the tutorial notebook to learn how to deploy Chronos endpoints for production use in a few lines of code.

Chronos-Bolt is a family of pretrained time series forecasting models which can be used for zero-shot forecasting. It is based on the T5 encoder-decoder architecture and has been trained on nearly 100 billion time series observations. It chunks the historical time series context into patches of multiple observations, which are then input into the encoder. The decoder then uses these representations to directly generate quantile forecasts across multiple future steps—a method known as direct multi-step forecasting. Chronos-Bolt models are more accurate, up to 250 times faster and 20 times more memory-efficient than the original Chronos models of the same size.

Performance

Read the full model card (636 words)

Configuration

Architecture
ChronosBoltModelForForecasting
Vocabulary size
2
Stored precision
float32
Model type
t5

Identity and Version

Repository
autogluon/chronos-bolt-base
Publisher
Autogluon
Task
Time series forecasting
Modality
Time series
Library
Not stated by the source
Parameters
205M parameters
Languages
Not stated by the source
Revision
e59be9fd0d4eb34679a85b4e011daf37041e811b
First published
2024-11-13
Last updated
2025-10-30

Files and Weights

4 files, 821.2 MB in total. The weights are 1 file totalling 821.2 MB in safetensors.

Weights1 file · 821.2 MB
Configuration1 file · 1.1 KB
Documentation1 file · 6.9 KB
Repository1 file · 1.5 KB
Every file
FileTypeSizeSHA-256
model.safetensorsWeights821.2 MB 31f875483a32
config.jsonConfiguration1.1 KB
README.mdDocumentation6.9 KB
.gitattributesRepository1.5 KB

License and Download

License
apache-2.0
Access
Open weights, no gate
Download size
821.2 MB
Download from Autogluon

Released by Autogluon through its official repository on Hugging Face. Read the license.

Built From

Memory Requirements

PrecisionWeights in memory
As published821.2 MB
16-bit0.4 GB
8-bit0.2 GB
4-bit0.1 GB

Weights only, from the published parameter count; the key-value cache and runtime add to this.

Questions About chronos-bolt-base

How much GPU memory does chronos-bolt-base need?

About 0.5 GB at 16-bit and 0.1 GB at 4-bit: the weights (205M parameters) plus a working margin. A long context needs more.

What is the cheapest GPU to run chronos-bolt-base on?

At 16-bit, 1x MI300X from $1.85 an hour; at 4-bit, 1x MI300X from $1.85 an hour, at the lowest on-demand prices the SAVRN Index lists.

Can I use chronos-bolt-base commercially?

Yes. chronos-bolt-base is released under Apache License 2.0. The Apache License 2.0 is a permissive open-source license. It permits commercial use, modification and redistribution. It requires keeping the license and copyright notices and any NOTICE file, stating significant changes, and it includes an express patent grant from contributors.

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