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Open-weight model · Time series forecasting

chronos-bolt-small

by Autogluon autogluon/chronos-bolt-small

Update Feb 14, 2025: Chronos-Bolt models are now available on Amazon SageMaker JumpStart! Check out the tutorial notebook to learn how to deploy Chronos endpoints for production use in a few lines of code.

Parameters48M
Context
Weights190.9 MB
Licenseapache-2.0
AccessOpen weights
Monthly Downloads6.1M

Runs On

What it takes to serve chronos-bolt-small (48M parameters): the memory its weights need at each precision, and the cheapest way to rent enough data-center GPUs to hold them.

PrecisionWeightsMemory neededCheapest setupPer hourAlso fits
16-bit 0.1 GB 0.1 GB 1x MI300X (192 GB)
Vultr
$1.85 1x H100 $1.99 · 1x MI325X $2.00
8-bit 0.0 GB 0.1 GB 1x MI300X (192 GB)
Vultr
$1.85 1x H100 $1.99 · 1x MI325X $2.00
4-bit 0.0 GB 0.0 GB 1x MI300X (192 GB)
Vultr
$1.85 1x H100 $1.99 · 1x MI325X $2.00

Memory is the weights at that precision plus 20% for the runtime and a short context; a long context needs more. Prices are the lowest on-demand hourly rates in the SAVRN Index, read Sep 18, 2026.

SAVRN's Notes on chronos-bolt-small

Time series forecasting, zero-shot, from a T5 encoder-decoder with 48M parameters: Autogluon's chronos-bolt-small cuts a history into patches and forecasts from them without training on your own data. The 16-bit footprint is 0.1 GB, and the Index's cheapest host for it, a 192 GB MI300X at $1.85 per hour on demand, is oversized by three orders of magnitude. Run it as a job that shares an accelerator or takes a scheduled window, not one that owns hardware.

Apache 2.0 lets you modify and redistribute it commercially so long as the license, notices and NOTICE file travel with it and significant changes are stated, and the express patent grant matters once forecasts feed something you sell. No context length is listed, so test the history window you need rather than assume one. The method is in arXiv:2403.07815 and the T5 base in arXiv:1910.10683.

Model Card

By Autogluon, published under apache-2.0, revision 2e1597a7bae0.

Update Feb 14, 2025: Chronos-Bolt models are now available on Amazon SageMaker JumpStart! Check out the tutorial notebook to learn how to deploy Chronos endpoints for production use in a few lines of code.

Chronos-Bolt is a family of pretrained time series forecasting models which can be used for zero-shot forecasting. It is based on the T5 encoder-decoder architecture and has been trained on nearly 100 billion time series observations. It chunks the historical time series context into patches of multiple observations, which are then input into the encoder. The decoder then uses these representations to directly generate quantile forecasts across multiple future steps—a method known as direct multi-step forecasting. Chronos-Bolt models are more accurate, up to 250 times faster and 20 times more memory-efficient than the original Chronos models of the same size.

Performance

Read the full model card (636 words)

Configuration

Architecture
ChronosBoltModelForForecasting
Vocabulary size
2
Stored precision
float32
Model type
t5

Identity and Version

Repository
autogluon/chronos-bolt-small
Publisher
Autogluon
Task
Time series forecasting
Modality
Time series
Library
Not stated by the source
Parameters
48M parameters
Languages
Not stated by the source
Revision
2e1597a7bae01316fcea6a9da90451890b529096
First published
2024-11-13
Last updated
2025-10-30

Files and Weights

4 files, 190.9 MB in total. The weights are 1 file totalling 190.9 MB in safetensors.

Weights1 file · 190.9 MB
Configuration1 file · 1.1 KB
Documentation1 file · 6.9 KB
Repository1 file · 1.5 KB
Every file
FileTypeSizeSHA-256
model.safetensorsWeights190.9 MB 06a6a19bbe74
config.jsonConfiguration1.1 KB
README.mdDocumentation6.9 KB
.gitattributesRepository1.5 KB

License and Download

License
apache-2.0
Access
Open weights, no gate
Download size
190.9 MB
Download from Autogluon

Released by Autogluon through its official repository on Hugging Face. Read the license.

Built From

Memory Requirements

PrecisionWeights in memory
As published190.9 MB
16-bit0.1 GB
8-bit0.0 GB
4-bit0.0 GB

Weights only, from the published parameter count; the key-value cache and runtime add to this.

Compare chronos-bolt-small

Questions About chronos-bolt-small

How much GPU memory does chronos-bolt-small need?

About 0.1 GB at 16-bit and 0 GB at 4-bit: the weights (48M parameters) plus a working margin. A long context needs more.

What is the cheapest GPU to run chronos-bolt-small on?

At 16-bit, 1x MI300X from $1.85 an hour; at 4-bit, 1x MI300X from $1.85 an hour, at the lowest on-demand prices the SAVRN Index lists.

Can I use chronos-bolt-small commercially?

Yes. chronos-bolt-small is released under Apache License 2.0. The Apache License 2.0 is a permissive open-source license. It permits commercial use, modification and redistribution. It requires keeping the license and copyright notices and any NOTICE file, stating significant changes, and it includes an express patent grant from contributors.

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