Green Home Score — Multi-Output Random Forest
A multi-output Random Forest regressor for predicting residential property energy consumption and valuation, built for the Lloyds Green Home Score ESG intelligence platform.
Model Description
This model predicts three targets simultaneously from 13 property features:
| Target |
Test R² |
Test MAE |
| Annual Electricity (kWh) |
0.939 |
750 |
| Annual Gas (kWh) |
0.914 |
1,734 |
| Property Valuation (GBP) |
0.853 |
£40,195 |
Features
| Feature |
Type |
| age |
numeric |
| floor_area |
numeric |
| bedrooms |
numeric |
| solar |
boolean |
| smart_controls |
boolean |
| wall_insulated |
boolean |
| draught_proofed |
boolean |
| property_type |
categorical |
| energy_rating |
categorical (A-G) |
| heating |
categorical |
| insulation |
categorical |
| glazing |
categorical |
| region |
categorical |
Usage
import joblib
from huggingface_hub import hf_hub_download
model_path = hf_hub_download("Vatsavsrivatsav/green-home-score-rf", "multioutput_rf.joblib")
model = joblib.load(model_path)
# Predict: [annual_electricity_kwh, annual_gas_kwh, value_current_gbp]
# Input must be preprocessed with the same encoding as training
predictions = model.predict(X)
Training
- Algorithm: scikit-learn
MultiOutputRegressor wrapping RandomForestRegressor
- Data: 1,500 synthetic UK residential properties (1,050 train / 225 val / 225 test)
- Target scaling: StandardScaler fitted on training targets to balance pounds and kWh
Limitations
- Synthetic simulator consistency only, not real-world accuracy
- Current value model validation is synthetic, not historical UK transaction validation
- Value ranges are sensitivity bands, not calibrated confidence intervals
Intended Use
Part of the Lloyds Green Home Score platform for ESG risk assessment, retrofit recommendation, and green lending analytics. Not intended for direct property valuation or energy certificate prediction.
Files
multioutput_rf.joblib — trained multi-output Random Forest model
mean_baseline.joblib — mean baseline model for comparison
evaluation_metrics.json — full train/val/test metrics
evaluation_report.md — human-readable evaluation report